Wahlumfrage Österreich: SPÖ 27, ÖVP 23, FPÖ 21, GRÜNE 14, STRONACH 9, PIRATEN 3, BZÖ 2 (Gallup/oe24.at: n=400, 23.09.12)
geposted von
Dieter Zirnig
am 23. September 2012 – 14:55Keine Kommentare
Die aktuelle Wahlumfrage von Gallup (veröffentlicht in oe24.at am 23. September 2012) sieht die SPÖ mit 27 % an erster Stelle. Die ÖVP kommt mit 23 % vor der FPÖ (21 %). Die Grünen liegen bei 14 %, eine Bewegung rund um Frank Stronach liegt bei 9 %. Das BZÖ liegt mit 2 % ebenso wie die PIRATEN mit 3 % außerhalb den Mandatsrängen. Sonstige Parteien liegen bei 1 %..
neuwal Mandatsberechnung
Bei der neuwal-Mandatsberechnung, basierend auf den Gallup-Umfragewerten (n=400, +/- 4.5 % Schwankungsbreite), gibt es derzeit 5 Parteien, die für eine Koalition in Frage kommen: SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, DIE GRÜNEN und eine Bewegung rund um Frank Stronach. Für eine Mandatsmehrheit werden 92 von 183 Mandaten benötigt (in Klammer Mandate bei 165 Sitzen, 83 Mandate bilden eine Mandatsmehrheit).
| Koalitionsmöglichkeiten | 183 Mandate | 165 Mandate | ||
|
SPÖ
|
ÖVP
|
98
|
88
|
|
|
SPÖ
|
FPÖ
|
94
|
85
|
|
|
ÖVP
|
FPÖ
|
86
|
77
|
|
|
ÖVP
|
FPÖ
|
STRO
|
103
|
93
|
|
SPÖ
|
GRÜNE
|
80
|
72
|
|
|
SPÖ
|
GRÜNE
|
STRO
|
97
|
88
|
Wahlumfrage-Details
- Umfragegröße (n): n=400
- Schwankungsbreite: +/- 5 %
- Umfragezeitraum: -
- Methode: telefonisch
- Auftraggeber: ÖSTERREICH
- Agentur: Gallup
- Veröffentlicht: oe24.at
Inhalt
Aktuelle Sonntagsfrage
| Partei |
Umfrage
|
2008
|
Differenz
|
|||
|
in %
|
Mandate (183)
|
in %
|
Mandate (183)
|
in %
|
Mandate
|
|
|
SPÖ
|
27
|
53
|
29.3
|
57
|
-2.3
|
-4
|
|
ÖVP
|
23
|
45
|
26.0
|
51
|
-3
|
-6
|
|
FPÖ
|
21
|
41
|
17.5
|
34
|
+3.5
|
+7
|
|
BZÖ
|
2
|
0
|
10.7
|
21
|
-8.7
|
-21
|
|
GRÜNE
|
14
|
27
|
10.4
|
20
|
+3.6
|
+7
|
|
PIRATEN
|
3
|
0
|
-
|
-
|
+3
|
0
|
|
Stronach
|
9
|
17
|
-
|
-
|
+9
|
+17
|
|
LIF
|
-
|
-
|
2.1
|
0
|
-
|
-
|
|
FRITZ
|
-
|
-
|
1.8
|
0
|
-
|
-
|
|
KPÖ
|
-
|
-
|
0.8
|
0
|
-
|
-
|
|
DC
|
-
|
-
|
0.6
|
0
|
-
|
-
|
|
Andere
|
1
|
0
|
0.8
|
0
|
-5.1
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mandatsberechnung (183 Mandate)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Koalitionsmöglichkeiten (183 Mandate)
183 Mandate werden vergeben: Ab 92 Mandaten gibt es eine Mehrheit.
|
SPÖ
|
ÖVP
|
FPÖ
|
BZÖ
|
GRÜ
|
PIR
|
Stro
|
Ges.
|
|
53
|
45
|
41
|
0
|
27
|
0
|
17
|
183
|
|
|
|||||||
|
53
|
45
|
98
|
|||||
|
53
|
41
|
94
|
|||||
|
45
|
41
|
17
|
103
|
||||
|
53
|
27
|
17
|
97
|
||||
|
45
|
41
|
27
|
113
|
||||
|
45
|
41
|
86
|
|||||
|
53
|
17
|
70
|
|||||
|
45
|
17
|
62
|
|||||
|
41
|
17
|
58
|
|||||
|
53
|
27
|
80
|
|||||
Koalitionsmöglichkeiten (165 Mandate)
165 Mandate werden vergeben: Ab 83 Mandaten gibt es eine Mehrheit.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPÖ
|
ÖVP
|
FPÖ
|
BZÖ
|
GRÜ
|
PIR
|
Stro
|
Ges.
|
|
48
|
40
|
37
|
0
|
24
|
0
|
16
|
165
|
|
|
|||||||
|
48
|
40
|
88
|
|||||
|
48
|
37
|
85
|
|||||
|
40
|
37
|
16
|
93
|
||||
|
48
|
24
|
16
|
88
|
||||
|
40
|
37
|
24
|
101
|
||||
|
40
|
37
|
77
|
|||||
|
48
|
16
|
64
|
|||||
|
40
|
16
|
56
|
|||||
|
37
|
16
|
53
|
|||||
|
48
|
24
|
72
|
|||||
| Wahlberechtigt |
6,355,800
|
|
| abgegeb. Stimmen |
78,81 %**
|
5,009,006
|
| ungültige Stimmen |
2,08 %**
|
104,187
|
| Gültige Stimmen |
4,904,819*
|
*) Mandate wurden nach dem D’Hondt’schen
Verfahren berechnet
**) Die Berechnung der gültigen Stimmen erfolg auf einer Annahme von
abgegebenen und gültigen Stimmen von den Wahlen 2008. Die gültigen
Stimmen (4,904,819) sind die Basis für die Mandatsberechnung
Kanzlerfrage
Stand: 22.09.2012
Quelle: profil/Karmasin
|
|
Alle Wahlumfragen
| Datum | Institut | Befr. |
SPÖ
|
ÖVP
|
FPÖ
|
GRÜ
|
BZÖ
|
PIR
|
STR
|
LIF
|
KPÖ
|
And.
|
| 23.09.12 | Gallup | 400 |
27
|
23
|
21
|
14
|
2
|
3
|
9
|
1
|
||
| 22.09.12 | Karmasin | 500 |
27
|
22
|
21
|
15
|
2
|
-
|
9
|
4
|
||
| 01.09.12 | Gallup | 400 |
28
|
21
|
20
|
14
|
3
|
2
|
10
|
2
|
||
| 01.09.12 | market | 400 |
30
|
24
|
21
|
15
|
3
|
7
|
||||
| 25.08.12 | Karmasin | 500 |
29
|
23
|
21
|
14
|
2
|
0
|
7
|
4
|
||
| 18.08.12 | Gallup | 400 |
28
|
21
|
20
|
14
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
2
|
||
| 11.08.12 | Gallup | 400 |
28
|
22
|
23
|
12
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
||
| 04.08.12 | Gallup | 400 |
29
|
21
|
21
|
12
|
2
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
||
| 30.07.12 | market | 400 |
30
|
22
|
23
|
14
|
6
|
5
|
||||
| 22.07.12 | Gallup | 400 |
28
|
21
|
23
|
12
|
2
|
5
|
6
|
3
|
||
| 14.07.12 | IMAS | ? |
28-30
|
23-25
|
19-21
|
13-15
|
6-8
|
4-6
|
||||
| 07.07.12 | Gallup | 400 |
28
|
22
|
23
|
12
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
||
| Datum | Institut | Befr. |
SPÖ
|
ÖVP
|
FPÖ
|
GRÜ
|
BZÖ
|
PIR
|
LFR
|
LIF
|
KPÖ
|
And.
|
| 01.07.12 | Gallup | 400 |
28
|
23
|
24
|
12
|
3
|
7
|
3
|
|||
| 30.06.12 | Karmasin | 500 |
29
|
23
|
24
|
13
|
4
|
7
|
||||
| 29.06.12 | Hajek | 1000 |
30
|
25
|
25
|
12
|
5
|
3
|
||||
| 10.06.12 | Gallup | 400 |
28
|
23
|
24
|
14
|
3
|
6
|
2
|
|||
| 02.06.12 | Karmasin | 500 |
30
|
25
|
24
|
12
|
3
|
6
|
||||
| 00.05.12 | Humaninstitut | |||||||||||
| 00.05.12 | Gallup | |||||||||||
| 12.05.12 | Gallup | 400 |
26
|
21
|
27
|
13
|
3
|
7
|
3
|
|||
| 05.05.12 | Karmasin | 400 |
29
|
24
|
26
|
12
|
2
|
7
|
||||
| 29.04.12 | Gallup | 400 |
27
|
22
|
27
|
13
|
3
|
6
|
2
|
|||
| 22.04.12 | Gallup | 400 |
27
|
22
|
28
|
14
|
3
|
6
|
||||
| 21.04.12 | IMAS | - |
28
|
24
|
21
|
14
|
7
|
-
|
||||
| 07.04.12 | Gallup (2/2) | 400 |
28
|
22
|
28
|
14
|
4
|
4
|
||||
| 07.04.12 | Gallup (1/2) | 400 |
25
|
22
|
25
|
10
|
3
|
7
|
||||
| 05.04.12 | Karmasin | 500 |
29
|
23
|
27
|
13
|
2
|
6
|
||||
| 24.03.12 | Gallup | 800 |
28
|
23
|
28
|
14
|
3
|
4
|
||||
| 23.03.12 | Hajek | 1.000 |
29
|
23
|
27
|
13
|
6
|
2
|
||||
| 11.03.12 | Gallup | 800 |
29
|
25
|
27
|
13
|
3
|
3
|
||||
| 10.03.12 | Karmasin | - |
29
|
24
|
26
|
13
|
3
|
5
|
||||
| 09.03.12 | spectra | 700 |
27-29
|
23-25
|
22-24
|
11-13
|
7-9
|
4-6
|
||||
| 24.03.12 | Gallup | 800 |
28
|
23
|
28
|
14
|
3
|
4
|
||||
| 23.03.12 | Hajek | 1.000 |
29
|
23
|
27
|
13
|
6
|
2
|
||||
| 11.03.12 | Gallup | 800 |
29
|
25
|
27
|
13
|
3
|
3
|
||||
| 10.03.12 | Karmasin | - |
29
|
24
|
26
|
13
|
3
|
5
|
||||
| 09.03.12 | spectra | 700 |
27-29
|
23-25
|
22-24
|
11-13
|
7-9
|
4-6
|
||||
| 26.02.12 | Gallup |
29
|
26
|
26
|
13
|
3
|
3
|
|||||
| 21.02.12 | market | 408 |
28
|
24
|
27
|
16
|
4
|
1
|
||||
| 11.02.12 | Karmasin |
30
|
24
|
24
|
13
|
4
|
5
|
|||||
| 04.02.12 | Gallup | 800 |
29
|
25
|
24
|
14
|
4
|
4
|
||||
| 28.01.12 | Gallup |
28
|
24
|
27
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
|||||
| 26.01.12 | OGM |
28
|
23
|
28
|
14
|
5
|
2
|
|||||
| 14.01.12 | Karmasin |
29
|
25
|
26
|
14
|
4
|
2
|
|||||
| 08.01.12 | Gallup |
28
|
24
|
26
|
13
|
5
|
4
|
|||||
| 01.01.12 | Gallup | 800 |
28
|
24
|
26
|
13
|
5
|
4
|
||||
| 28.12.11 | IMAS | 1000 |
30
|
23
|
26
|
14
|
5
|
2
|
||||
| 25.12.11 | Gallup | 1000 |
28
|
24
|
26
|
13
|
5
|
4
|
||||
| 11.12.11 | OGM | N/A |
29
|
25
|
27
|
14
|
4
|
1
|
||||
| 20.11.11 | Karmasin | N/A |
29
|
22
|
27
|
13
|
5
|
4
|
||||
| 06.11.11 | Karmasin | N/A |
28
|
23
|
27
|
15
|
3
|
4
|
||||
| 05.11.11 | Gallup | 400 |
29
|
23
|
27
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
||||
| 01.11.11 | market | N/A |
27
|
24
|
27
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
||||
| 30.10.11 | Gallup | 350 |
29
|
22
|
28
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
||||
| 24.10.11 | Gallup | N/A |
30
|
23
|
26
|
15
|
3
|
3
|
||||
| … | ||||||||||||
| 02.09.11 | Gallup | N/A |
28
|
24
|
24
|
14
|
5
|
5
|
||||
| 21.08.11 | Gallup | N/A |
27
|
25
|
25
|
13
|
5
|
5
|
||||
| 18.08.11 | IMAS | 1.000 |
26
|
25
|
25
|
13
|
5
|
6
|
||||
| 10.07.11 | Gallup | N/A |
28
|
24
|
27
|
14
|
4
|
3
|
||||
| 03.07.11 | profil | N/A |
3
|
|||||||||
| 22.06.11 | IMAS | N/A |
28
|
26
|
23
|
13
|
7
|
3
|
||||
| 19.06.11 | Gallup | 800 |
27
|
24
|
27
|
15
|
4
|
3
|
||||
| 18.06.11 | Karmasin | N/A |
27
|
24
|
27
|
14
|
4
|
4
|
||||
| 12.06.11 | Gallup |
28
|
24
|
27
|
14
|
4
|
3
|
|||||
| 20.05.11 | Gallup |
28
|
24
|
27
|
14
|
4
|
3
|
|||||
| 19.05.11 | OGM/Kurier | - |
28
|
23
|
29
|
13
|
5
|
2
|
||||
| 16.04.11 | Karmasin |
27
|
23
|
26
|
15
|
6
|
3
|
|||||
|
15.04.11 |
Gallup |
27
|
26
|
21
|
16
|
6
|
4
|
|||||
| 15.04.11 | IMAS |
25-27
|
21-23
|
21-23
|
14-15
|
11-13
|
2
|
|||||
| 15.04.11 | market |
28
|
22
|
25
|
14
|
6
|
5
|
|||||
| 10.04.11 | Gallup |
27
|
23
|
26
|
15
|
5
|
4
|
|||||
| 08.04.11 | Gallup |
26
|
25
|
29
|
14
|
4
|
2
|
|||||
| 03.04.11 | Gallup |
27
|
23
|
26
|
16
|
4
|
4
|
|||||
| 20.03.11 | Gallup |
28
|
25
|
25
|
14
|
4
|
4
|
|||||
| 10.03.11 | OGM |
27
|
28
|
27
|
11
|
5
|
2
|
|||||
| 13.02.11 | IFES |
29
|
24
|
24
|
14
|
5
|
5
|
|||||
| 13.02.11 | Gallup |
27
|
25
|
25
|
13
|
5
|
5
|
|||||
| 06.02.11 | market |
29
|
27
|
24
|
12
|
6
|
2
|
|||||
| 21.01.11 | IMAS |
26
|
25
|
25
|
13
|
8
|
3
|
|||||
| 16.01.11 | karmasin |
30
|
27
|
24
|
13
|
4
|
2
|
|||||
| 15.01.11 | Gallup |
26
|
24
|
25
|
15
|
5
|
5
|
|||||
| 19.12.10 | IMAS |
27
|
25
|
22
|
11
|
10
|
5
|
|||||
| 18.12.10 | Peter Hajek |
30
|
27
|
25
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
|||||
| 11.12.10 | Gallup |
27
|
24
|
25
|
14
|
5
|
3
|
|||||
| 22.11.10 | Karmasin |
29
|
25
|
24
|
12
|
5
|
3
|
|||||
| 28.11.10 | at/market |
27
|
24
|
24
|
13
|
6
|
6
|
|||||
| 28.11.10 | Gallup |
29
|
26
|
24
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
|||||
| 30.10.10 | Gallup |
29
|
25
|
24
|
12
|
5
|
5
|
|||||
| 26.10.10 | market |
28
|
25
|
25
|
11
|
5
|
6
|
|||||
| 24.10.10 | Karmasin |
30
|
28
|
24
|
12
|
4
|
2
|
|||||
| 15.10.10 | gallup |
27
|
24
|
25
|
12
|
6
|
6
|
|||||
| 18.09.10 | gallup |
32
|
30
|
21
|
10
|
3
|
4
|
|||||
| 12.09.10 | market/ |
27
|
25
|
24
|
11
|
8
|
5
|
|||||
| 28.08.10 | Karmasin/ |
33
|
32
|
20
|
10
|
3
|
2
|
|||||
| 14.08.10 | gallup |
33
|
31
|
20
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
|||||
| 26.07.10 | market/ |
26
|
28
|
24
|
12
|
7
|
3
|
|||||
| 25.07.10 | gallup |
33
|
30
|
20
|
12
|
2
|
3
|
|||||
| 10.07.10 | gallup |
35
|
33
|
18
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
|||||
| 10.07.10 | Karmasin |
34
|
33
|
19
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
|||||
| 19.06.10 | gallup |
33
|
33
|
20
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
|||||
| 10.06.10 | GfK |
32
|
34
|
20
|
10
|
2
|
2
|
|||||
| 04.06.10 | gallup |
32
|
33
|
19
|
12
|
2
|
2
|
|||||
| 24.05.10 | gallup |
30
|
31
|
20
|
13
|
2
|
4
|
|||||
| 24.05.10 | market |
29
|
27
|
23
|
12
|
5
|
4
|
|||||
| 02.05.10 | gallup |
31
|
31
|
19
|
13
|
2
|
3
|
|||||
| 24.04.10 | karmasin |
33
|
33
|
19
|
12
|
2
|
1
|
|||||
| 10.04.10 | gallup |
29
|
34
|
20
|
12
|
3
|
1
|
|||||
| 31.03.10 | market |
27
|
31
|
21
|
12
|
4
|
5
|
|||||
| 28.03.10 | gallup |
30
|
32
|
21
|
12
|
3
|
2
|
|||||
| 17.03.10 | karmasin |
33
|
32
|
20
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
|||||
| 15.02.10 | gallup |
31
|
32
|
21
|
12
|
3
|
1
|
|||||
| 23.01.10 | karmasin |
31
|
32
|
22
|
12
|
1
|
2
|
|||||
| 14.12.09 | market |
27
|
32
|
24
|
10
|
4
|
3
|
|||||
| 28.11.09 | Gallup |
30
|
34
|
19
|
12
|
4
|
1
|
|||||
| 22.11.09 | karmasin |
29
|
34
|
21
|
10
|
5
|
1
|
|||||
| 07.11.09 | OGM |
29
|
35
|
20
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
|||||
| 22.10.09 | karmasin |
28
|
35
|
22
|
10
|
4
|
1
|
|||||
| 03.10.09 | OGM |
27
|
35
|
20
|
12
|
4
|
2
|
|||||
| 30.09.09 | OGM |
26
|
34
|
24
|
10
|
4
|
2
|
|||||
| 28.09.09 | atv |
28
|
32
|
23
|
9
|
6
|
2
|
|||||
| 08.08.09 | karmasin |
31
|
31
|
21
|
10
|
6
|
1
|
|||||
| 27.06.09 | gallup |
29
|
30
|
23
|
10
|
6
|
2
|
|||||
| 20.06.09 | karmasin |
30
|
32
|
21
|
9
|
6
|
2
|
|||||
| 09.06.09 | OGM |
29
|
31
|
21
|
12
|
6
|
1
|
|||||
| 19.05.09 | OGM |
31
|
29
|
22
|
10
|
6
|
2
|
|||||
| 16.05.09 | karmasin |
33
|
31
|
20
|
9
|
6
|
1
|
|||||
| 09.04.09 | OGM |
31
|
30
|
22
|
9
|
6
|
2
|
|||||
| 22.03.09 | market |
31
|
29
|
22
|
9
|
7
|
2
|
|||||
| 15.02.09 | OGM |
32
|
30
|
21
|
9
|
7
|
||||||
| 09.02.09 | market |
34
|
29
|
21
|
10
|
6
|
||||||
| 05.02.09 | IMAS |
30
|
27
|
20
|
11
|
8
|
4
|
|||||
| 26.01.09 | market |
34
|
28
|
22
|
9
|
6
|
1
|
|||||
| 18.01.09 | gallup |
34
|
30
|
15
|
13
|
6
|
2
|
|||||
| 18.01.09 | OGM |
33
|
29
|
18
|
11
|
8
|
||||||
| 26.12.08 | market |
31
|
27
|
23
|
9
|
9
|
1
|
|||||
| 13.12.08 | gallup |
31
|
29
|
17
|
14
|
7
|
2
|
|||||
| 13.12.08 | OGM |
34
|
28
|
17
|
11
|
9
|
||||||
| 22.11.08 | gallup |
35
|
27
|
18
|
12
|
8
|
||||||
| 16.11.08 | OGM |
35
|
28
|
16
|
11
|
9
|
||||||
| 15.11.08 | IMAS |
30
|
24
|
20
|
12
|
9
|
5
|
|||||
| 24.10.08 | gallup |
34
|
25
|
17
|
12
|
11
|
2
|
|||||
| 27.09.08 | IFES |
27
|
27
|
16
|
12
|
7
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
|||
| 27.09.08 | gallup |
29
|
27
|
17
|
12
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
|||
| 24.09.08 | market |
29
|
27
|
19
|
10
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
|||
| 20.09.08 | OGM |
29
|
26
|
18
|
11
|
8
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
|||
| 18.09.08 | gallup |
28
|
26
|
17
|
12
|
8
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
|||
| 17.09.08 | market |
29
|
26
|
20
|
11
|
6
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
|||
| 13.09.08 | OGM |
28
|
26
|
18
|
12
|
8
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
|||
| 12.09.08 | gallup |
28
|
27
|
16
|
12
|
6
|
3
|
4
|
||||
| 10.09.08 | OGM |
29
|
27
|
18
|
11
|
7
|
2
|
3
|
||||
| 04.09.08 | OGM |
29
|
27
|
17
|
12
|
7
|
3
|
4
|
||||
| 05.09.08 | gallup |
28
|
27
|
17
|
12
|
6
|
3
|
4
|
||||
| 03.09.08 | market |
28
|
25
|
20
|
12
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
||||
| 30.08.08 | imas |
27
|
26
|
18
|
13
|
7
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
|||
| 30.08.08 | OGM |
27
|
28
|
18
|
12
|
6
|
||||||
| 28.08.08 | gallup |
27
|
26
|
19
|
12
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
||||
| 27.08.08 | market |
28
|
26
|
20
|
13
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
||||
| 23.08.08 | gallup |
25
|
26
|
18
|
15
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
||||
| 20.08.08 | market |
26
|
27
|
20
|
14
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
||||
| 17.08.08 | OGM |
26
|
31
|
17
|
13
|
4
|
||||||
| 14.08.08 | gallup |
27
|
28
|
17
|
15
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
||||
| 07.08.08 | gallup |
26
|
26
|
19
|
14
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
||||
| 01.08.08 | gallup |
23
|
26
|
17
|
15
|
7
|
7
|
5
|
||||
| 25.07.08 | gallup |
25
|
29
|
15
|
14
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
||||
| 19.07.08 | IMAS |
24
|
29
|
20
|
15
|
4
|
5
|
|||||
| 17.07.08 | Gallup |
24
|
26
|
19
|
16
|
5
|
6
|
2
|
||||
| 12.07.08 | Integral |
28
|
31
|
16
|
14
|
4
|
5
|
|||||
| 10.07.08 | Gallup |
21
|
23
|
18
|
14
|
5
|
7
|
2
|
2
|
|||
| 09.07.08 | NEWS |
26
|
33
|
22
|
14
|
4
|
2
|
|||||
| 02.07.08 | NEWS |
27
|
33
|
21
|
14
|
3
|
2
|
|||||
